AnnouncementApril 14, 2026
Apollo Investment Club Publishes Long Thesis on e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF)
Mario Molinari's April 2026 pitch argues the market is underpricing a brand compounding revenue at 23% a year, with an 11% margin of safety.
Apollo Investment Club has published a long thesis on e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE: ELF), presented by Mario Molinari on April 14, 2026. The case is straightforward: e.l.f. has grown revenue at a 23% CAGR over the past decade against a 4% CAGR for the beauty category as a whole, yet the stock trades at a multiple that assumes that growth is about to stop.
The thesis rests on the following pillars.
- Fast-growing company with strong momentum
- Beauty category CAGR past 10 years → +4%
- e.l.f. Beauty CAGR past 10 years → +23%
- Value pricing creates resilience in all environments
- e.l.f. Cosmetics → ~$7.50
- Top Mass Brands → ~$9.50
- Prestige Brands → ~$30
- Dominant brand with younger generations
- #1 Cosmetics brand for Gen Alpha, Gen Z, Millennials
- Market share gains vs competitors
- Top 10 cosmetics brands 5-year market share change → -30bps
- e.l.f. 5-year market share change → +800bps
- Strong brand popularity and cultural relevance
- e.l.f. popularity in the US increased from 31% at the end of 2020 to 42% at the beginning of 2025
- Market assumes growth will decelerate too significantly
- Growth has been exceptionally high, leading investors to expect natural mean reversion
- Perception that beauty is a mature, low-growth category
- Belief that competition will erode share gains over time → Reality: e.l.f. continues to gain share (+800bps over 5 years)